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Hello gwern

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November 09, 2013, 12:26:01 am

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Betting on Sheep/BMR's demise

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gwern

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Betting on Sheep/BMR's demise

« on: October 30, 2013, 11:15:35 pm »

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http://www.reddit.com/r/SilkRoad/comments/1pko9y/the_bet_bmr_and_sheep_to_die_in_a_year/

Basically, I'm offering 4 bets, 1 bitcoin each, that Sheep/BMR will die within 6/12 months respectively. I assume people on this forum might find that interesting or even want to take the bets at the odds I'm offering.

(But hopefully the fact that someone is willing to put money behind their assertions that Sheep & BMR are unsafe will wake up some people and at least get them to use PGP or something for christ's sake.)

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AstroHaven

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Re: Betting on Sheep/BMR's demise

« Reply #1 on: October 30, 2013, 11:22:28 pm »

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BMR had it's own small community before SR shut down and everyone migrated there, so I'm guessing once this new site is up and everyone transfers back over, BMR will be back to its old community.... Sheep, I'm not so sure.

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Supplying the USA with a variety of affordable potent substances as followers: Cocaine(bulk/grams), Adderall(Bulk), Xanax(Bulk), 2C-Family, LSD(Vials/Sheets), MDMA(Pills/Crystal), and our very own Speed Tablets.

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sacha16

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Re: Betting on Sheep/BMR's demise

« Reply #2 on: October 30, 2013, 11:24:33 pm »

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"Why are you vigorously trying to persuade us you're right and then asking us to bet money that you're wrong?"
this

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gwern

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Re: Betting on Sheep/BMR's demise

« Reply #3 on: October 30, 2013, 11:32:20 pm »

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Quote from: sacha16 on October 30, 2013, 11:24:33 pm

"Why are you vigorously trying to persuade us you're right and then asking us to bet money that you're wrong?"
this

See my reply: http://www.reddit.com/r/SilkRoad/comments/1pko9y/the_bet_bmr_and_sheep_to_die_in_a_year/cd3ad3p

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CLKR

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Re: Betting on Sheep/BMR's demise

« Reply #4 on: October 30, 2013, 11:45:39 pm »

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Wow you are a complete downer, BMR is a very tightly run ship with a fantastic owner and i have seen no reason to be more concerned than using any other site, you're just picking up FUD and trying to spread it as far as possible IMO.

As for sheep, well everyone knows about their security lapses.

But the fact remains that unless you're an idiot and make it easy for them, be a small time buyer or even vendor and you have very little to worry about

As has been said by anyone with 2 brain cells to rub together, treat everyone as undercover LE and act accordingly and you'l have little to worry about. PGP everything, use tails, dont leave your money sitting in a black market etc etc and stop panicking and making people tense.

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gwern

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Re: Betting on Sheep/BMR's demise

« Reply #5 on: October 30, 2013, 11:55:27 pm »

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Quote from: CLKR on October 30, 2013, 11:45:39 pm

Wow you are a complete downer

Maybe there's things to be down about.

Quote from: CLKR on October 30, 2013, 11:45:39 pm

BMR is a very tightly run ship with a fantastic owner and i have seen no reason to be more concerned than using any other site,

Tightly run ship with a fantastic owner? Where have you been for the last month?

Quote from: CLKR on October 30, 2013, 11:45:39 pm

you're just picking up FUD

No, no, see the thing about 'fear, uncertainty, and doubt' is that it's not based on facts. But it's a fact that BMR leaked data, that the code is shitty and ripe for attack, and so on and so forth.

Quote from: CLKR on October 30, 2013, 11:45:39 pm

and trying to spread it as far as possible IMO.

I will cop to that. I've learned that a lot of people, for all that they BS publicly about how something is a great tightly-run ship, when someone offers them a bet about what they claim to believe, they refuse to accept it. Action speak louder than words. So if I want anyone to take my bet, I need to cast a wide net.

Quote from: CLKR on October 30, 2013, 11:45:39 pm

As has been said by anyone with 2 brain cells to rub together, treat everyone as undercover LE and act accordingly and you'l have little to worry about. PGP everything, use tails, dont leave your money sitting in a black market etc etc and stop panicking and making people tense.

And yet, people *don't*. They're idiots who won't even use PGP (3/4s of them, according to the Black Flag leaker, and 9/10ths according to the Atlantis admin).

« Last Edit: October 30, 2013, 11:55:52 pm by gwern »

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Bugs

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Re: Betting on Sheep/BMR's demise

« Reply #6 on: October 31, 2013, 12:01:15 am »

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I never went to BMR before but i think its a good place. backcopy never told homeland security anyone could get fake id's off silk road, hired a hit, do interviews with forbes and start a twitter. Seems like they are on top of things and as long as you go to your old SR vendors that are over there, all should be okay.

Sheep, bad vibe. i stay away.

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Old member, new name.

The Rebellion

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Re: Betting on Sheep/BMR's demise

« Reply #7 on: October 31, 2013, 12:26:01 am »

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grow up kiddo what is the point of this

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gwern

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Re: Betting on Sheep/BMR's demise

« Reply #8 on: October 31, 2013, 12:35:59 am »

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Quote from: Bugs on October 31, 2013, 12:01:15 am

I never went to BMR before but i think its a good place. backcopy never told homeland security anyone could get fake id's off silk road, hired a hit

How do you know he hasn't? How, exactly, did you find out that DPR did those things...?

Quote from: The Rebellion on October 31, 2013, 12:26:01 am

grow up kiddo what is the point of this

The point is clear. If you don't want to understand it, that's your problem.

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MrPharmacist

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Re: Betting on Sheep/BMR's demise

« Reply #9 on: October 31, 2013, 12:46:58 am »

Quote

Quote from: gwern on October 31, 2013, 12:35:59 am

Quote from: Bugs on October 31, 2013, 12:01:15 am

I never went to BMR before but i think its a good place. backcopy never told homeland security anyone could get fake id's off silk road, hired a hit

How do you know he hasn't? How, exactly, did you find out that DPR did those things...?

My sentiments exactly gwern.  In this day and age of constant exposure of government and media lies / cover-ups, why would you believe anything the Feds have told you?

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MrPharmacist

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Re: Betting on Sheep/BMR's demise

« Reply #10 on: October 31, 2013, 12:55:51 am »

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I don't reckon BMR and Sheep will die.  I think the community will diversify.  There will be people that use all 3 markets, and some only the one.   Having now used BMR and Sheep (with success) I'm just happy we have options.  The new SR will no doubt come under attack and suffer downtime, so it's good to know your trusted vendors are also selling on the other markets.

The more markets we have should also make LE's work more difficult....

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CLKR

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Re: Betting on Sheep/BMR's demise

« Reply #11 on: October 31, 2013, 01:02:38 am »

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What terrible rationale for your posts, i might aswel claim that ross ulbrich is a little green man from mars, because how do you know he isn't?

Yeah a lot of people are lazy and dont bother using pgp, if they get nicked, guess whos fault it is? Their own. Because everybody knows for extra security, the basic steps to take and if they are that lazy and stupid that the cannae be arsed, then its on them. It shouldnt be on us to baby everyone, especially when it comes to things like drugtaking because in my experience it seems to be the younger more naive/immature kids who dont bother with security, and have moire problems with drugs, and will blabber on like a coke head when confronted by police because they cant even stick to 1 simple rule: keep your moth shut.

Quote

No, no, see the thing about 'fear, uncertainty, and doubt' is that it's not based on facts. But it's a fact that BMR leaked data, that the code is shitty and ripe for attack, and so on and so forth.

They didnt leak data, a bit of code was stolen by the site host due to his (backopys) mistake trying to handle the massive influx of new people. He immidately shut down the site completely until a proper thorough assessment of what may have been comprimised could be done, and during this time allowed vendors and buyer to withdraw their bitcoins if they wanted. This to me is a good thing, if there was a problem like that on ross's silk road, there's no way we'd even hear about it & thisa shows that hes more concerned with security than making a quick few $. backopy seems very upfront, clever and respourceful. None of these sites will last forever, but theres been online drug dealing since the internet first was used and thats one thing that'l never stop. And i think out of all the sites out there BMR is probably gonna last the longest, i just dont see the fun in speculating and 'betting' on this kinda shit

I mean shit, i'm not having a go at you personally but all these hyper scare-mongering topics are repetitive and boring, almost as bad as the ridculous conspiracy theories that kids and meth heads are coming up wioth, 'Ross doesnt exist the FBI made him up' 'lib was a fed indigo was a fed EVERYONES A FED' etc etc. Hope that amde sense as i'm pretty high & knackered

« Last Edit: October 31, 2013, 01:04:12 am by CLKR »

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R160K

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Re: Betting on Sheep/BMR's demise

« Reply #12 on: October 31, 2013, 01:56:02 am »

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Quote from his reddit post:

Quote from: gwern

BMR will not be operating in 6 months:
25%; 1:3 (you risk ฿3 and if BMR is still operating, you win our ฿1, else you lose the ฿3 to us)

BMR will not be operating in 12 months
40%; 1:1.5 (you risk ฿1.5 & BMR is operating in a year, you win our ฿1, else lose ฿1.5)

Sheep will not be operating in 6 months
30%; 1:2.3 (your ฿2.3 against our ฿1)

Sheep will not be operating in 12 months
60%; 1:0.66 (you risk ฿0.66 against our ฿1)

For three out of the four bets, he is giving odds against his own predictions: he is claiming it is 3X more likely that BMR will stay up for six months than go down, 1.5X more likely it will last the whole 12 months than go down, and that Sheep is 2.3X more likely to last six months than go down.

There is no option to bet for the markets going down, only against: so why would he be offering a bet that he expects to lose? I reckon he'll ask for the money to be put into escrow with a "trusted" third party, who will turn out to also be him and he will run with the money. This whole thing confuses me though: if he wants people to accept the bet (which he must because against is the only option), why give all that spiel trying to convince people otherwise? There are so many layers of double-bluffs that this guy must either be mad or a psychological genius.

EDIT:
Seems I may be right:

Quote from: gwern

HOWTO

If you disagree and are man enough to take our bets, post the amount you are betting on which bet, and Nanotube will supply an address for you to transfer your bitcoin to. When it arrives in his wallet, then our bet will be in effect.

May the most accurate beliefs win.

« Last Edit: October 31, 2013, 02:01:11 am by R160K »

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MrPharmacist

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Re: Betting on Sheep/BMR's demise

« Reply #13 on: October 31, 2013, 02:09:55 am »

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I didn't think the betting was for real... I read it as a joke....   and a ridiculous one at that!

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gwern

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Re: Betting on Sheep/BMR's demise

« Reply #14 on: October 31, 2013, 02:29:37 am »

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Quote from: R160K on October 31, 2013, 01:56:02 am

For three out of the four bets, he is giving odds against his own predictions: he is claiming it is 3X more likely that BMR will stay up for six months than go down, 1.5X more likely it will last the whole 12 months than go down, and that Sheep is 2.3X more likely to last six months than go down.

There is no option to bet for the markets going down, only against: so why would he be offering a bet that he expects to lose? I reckon he'll ask for the money to be put into escrow with a "trusted" third party, who will turn out to also be him and he will run with the money. This whole thing confuses me though: if he wants people to accept the bet (which he must because against is the only option), why give all that spiel trying to convince people otherwise? There are so many layers of double-bluffs that this guy must either be mad or a psychological genius.

I don't think you are understanding my offer correctly? I gave my predicted probabilities: I expect ~25% probability that BMR will go down in 6 months, hence 1:3 odds are break-even for me in terms of expected value. And so on for the others. I think 25% risk of dying within 6 months is pretty darn risky! If I were told I had that risk, I'd be writing my will and drawing up a bucket list...

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R160K

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Re: Betting on Sheep/BMR's demise

« Reply #15 on: October 31, 2013, 04:43:24 am »

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Quote from: gwern

I don't think you are understanding my offer correctly? I gave my predicted probabilities: I expect ~25% probability that BMR will go down in 6 months, hence 1:3 odds are break-even for me in terms of expected value. And so on for the others. I think 25% risk of dying within 6 months is pretty darn risky! If I were told I had that risk, I'd be writing my will and drawing up a bucket list...

I see, but your bet doesn't really make sense. You estimate that statistically, there is a 1 in 4 chance of you winning the bet, so if you were to do lots of bets of that kind the probability is you would break even - and would therefore have the exact same money you started with making the bets pointless (unless it was just for the thrill of the chase). But you are not doing many bets of that kind, only one, so that statistical law is a sophistic fallacy.

That aside however, I understand that you are betting on something (in three out of the four cases) that you believe is less likely to happen than to not happen, but you have adjusted the odds accordingly to provide you with sufficient reward for the risk you're taking. However, you then try and convince people that the outcome you're betting on is more likely than you actually think it is, and therefore that the outcome they're betting on is less likely than you think it is, increasing the perceived risk and reducing the perceived reward of the bet.

I don't want to be too harsh however (sorry if I am, I'm tired) - I realise you were just speculating about the potential for BMR and/or Sheep to go down, and the bet was probably meant to be a fun thing, rather than the whole thing being a carefully considered gambling "business plan".

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bbkf

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Exercise caution in all ye do here

Re: Betting on Sheep/BMR's demise

« Reply #16 on: October 31, 2013, 05:08:47 am »

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Big deal you have a death pool, nothing new. I think it's kind of fucked up that you don't seem to want any of these places to work out. With your kind of thinking maybe you should get your ass on usenet and scan email addresses and collect online vendors the old way.

I don't know anything about Backopy, didn't care much for dpr's rants back on SR. He was cool in the beginning but started to sound self important.

What these guys do for us is provide valuable tools and valuable resources and a somewhat safe place to use them in. I would rather see several small sites than one Walmart of drugs. That's how people lose a lot of fucking money and gain a lot of federal attention.

One thing I do know is Backopy and both Dprs work their asses off and at least for that they are commendable.

I found a great vendor on BMR, I hope BMR stays in the game a long time.

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MrPharmacist

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Re: Betting on Sheep/BMR's demise

« Reply #17 on: October 31, 2013, 09:43:05 am »

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Quote from: bbkf on October 31, 2013, 05:08:47 am

What these guys do for us is provide valuable tools and valuable resources and a somewhat safe place to use them in. I would rather see several small sites than one Walmart of drugs. That's how people lose a lot of fucking money and gain a lot of federal attention.

I found a great vendor on BMR, I hope BMR stays in the game a long time.

Yup, agree. Especially on the Walmart comment. +1 to you.  ;o)

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Hiniguel

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Re: Betting on Sheep/BMR's demise

« Reply #18 on: October 31, 2013, 11:51:10 am »

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I reckon sheep will pull a scam once the new road is up, running and starting to see success.

Anyone using it - be careful. High volume vendors especially.

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gwern

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Re: Betting on Sheep/BMR's demise

« Reply #19 on: October 31, 2013, 02:26:40 pm »

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Quote from: R160K on October 31, 2013, 04:43:24 am

I see, but your bet doesn't really make sense. You estimate that statistically, there is a 1 in 4 chance of you winning the bet, so if you were to do lots of bets of that kind the probability is you would break even - and would therefore have the exact same money you started with making the bets pointless (unless it was just for the thrill of the chase). But you are not doing many bets of that kind, only one, so that statistical law is a sophistic fallacy.

You are right that the law of large numbers does not apply here, but I and my investors are prepared for losses, and I do more bets than you might think: https://gwern.net/Prediction%20markets

Quote from: R160K on October 31, 2013, 04:43:24 am

That aside however, I understand that you are betting on something (in three out of the four cases) that you believe is less likely to happen than to not happen, but you have adjusted the odds accordingly to provide you with sufficient reward for the risk you're taking. However, you then try and convince people that the outcome you're betting on is more likely than you actually think it is, and therefore that the outcome they're betting on is less likely than you think it is, increasing the perceived risk and reducing the perceived reward of the bet.

Correct. As I said on Reddit, I win either way: if people adjust their views toward mine and no longer find the bets seem profitable, great for them and I am pleased by people becoming more secure; if they are too gullible or too optimistic and think I'm a paranoid ranter and take the bets, great for me.

Quote from: R160K on October 31, 2013, 04:43:24 am

I don't want to be too harsh however (sorry if I am, I'm tired) - I realise you were just speculating about the potential for BMR and/or Sheep to go down, and the bet was probably meant to be a fun thing, rather than the whole thing being a carefully considered gambling "business plan".

It's both. I enjoy gambling on real-world matters of real importance, and I also did a bit of statistical analysis before I sought out my investors. (I'll probably post the analysis to my SR page once I've improved it a bit more.)

Quote from: bbkf on October 31, 2013, 05:08:47 am

Big deal you have a death pool, nothing new.

I never said it was new. It is, however, something that has not and is not being done for the black-markets, and is a way to cut through people's bullshit and get an idea of what people really believe. (If I were operating Sheep or BMR, I think I would be a little disturbed that no one at all is willing to take any of these bets.)

Quote from: bbkf on October 31, 2013, 05:08:47 am

I think it's kind of fucked up that you don't seem to want any of these places to work out.

What I want to happen and what will happen are two entirely separate things which should never be confused.

("Truth and hope are like travellers in contrary directions. They meet but once in any man's life." --R. Scott Bakker, The Thousandfold Thought)

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GGGreenbud

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Re: Betting on Sheep/BMR's demise

« Reply #20 on: October 31, 2013, 04:30:34 pm »

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I think both of them could be gone in 6 months, it depends on whether there is robust competition.  SR was so big, that it dominated the market, big huge profile, and now there are a few sites, it is gone, so I think they will go after SR 2.0 next, but I think the security people will defeat the US, because they have learned from the mistakes of the past.  People can say what they want about that, I know this is the SR2 forums so I'm not hating on the name, but I think BMR and Sheep are equally susceptible to going down, they have split traffic very well, and are doing a ton of business.  Sales are not as brisk as SR was at the end, but that is a high bar to set, people are paranoid right now.  When the kids from College and people  go home on Holliday, they will tell their drug friends about it, when they are out sourcing, and it will get bigger.  This is growing in tandem with Bitcoin, the two are tied, and Bitcoin is awesome, so we have nothing to fear.  I hope there are 5-10 markets, with one or two going down a year(tops) if they make mistakes, it really looks like they had to do a ton of work to take down SR, so I am hopeful for the future.  I want to see  "Soft Markets" that only sell weed, phens and psychedelics, possibly a few pharms but no coke, meth or heroin, but I don't think its going to happen soon enough.  People need to give Sheep some respect, they ARE doing decent business, and both markets had followings previously.  Integration into the new markets has been almost seamless with some vendors, most within a week of SR going down.

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